NOAA/NWS

Greater New York is under threat of a severe weather outbreak Thursday. The hatched area in this graphic from the Storm Prediction Center shows locations most likely to experience widespread wind damage.

A severe-weather outbreak could arrive on New York City’s doorstep Thursday evening, in an event that might prompt comparisons to the meteorological conditions prior to Washington D.C.’s derecho last month.

According to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., there is “potential for a widespread damaging wind event/derecho” on Thursday afternoon and evening stretching from roughly Cincinnati to Hartford. Some 32 million people will be in the path of the storm, including those in and around New York City. Derechos can pack straight-line winds of hurricane force (74 mph) or greater, causing extensive damage and lingering power outages.

Forecasters upgraded the entire tri-state to a “moderate risk” of severe weather Thursday, specifically noting that the New York City area will also have an unusually high chance of tornadoes as well. At the moment, the city itself has about a 45% chance of experiencing winds stronger than hurricane force in the evening.

Moderate risk forecasts are extremely rare in Greater New York, occurring only once on average every six years. They are even less likely to be issued more than 24 hours in advance, as happened on Wednesday.

Arguably the most intense severe weather outbreak in New York state history occurred on May 31, 1998, during the only “high risk” day ever issued in the Northeast. On that day, 13 people died as a combined derecho and tornado outbreak tore through central New York.

A look at forecasted atmospheric profiles for Thursday evening in New York City yield some intense meteorological variables for the area — on the order of those more typically found in tornado alley. One model carries values that argue for the local formation of Midwestern-scale supercell thunderstorms, with readings normally found during tornado outbreaks.

The coming storm will draw on tropical moisture streaming north from Florida to fuel itself, in addition to the energy from temperatures well into the 90s along much of the path from Ohio to the five boroughs.

Weather Journal will have continuing coverage of the severe weather outbreak via@WSJweather on Twitter.

Thursday’s Greater New York forecast roundup:

• WSJ Headquarters in Manhattan:
• Actual High: 91; High feels like: 96
• Actual Low: 78; Low feels like: 79
• Weather: Significant severe weather outbreak possible
• Brooklyn: 91/78
• Queens: 91/80
• Bronx: 92/78
• Staten Island: 91/77
• Poughkeepsie, N.Y.: 91/70
• Trenton, N.J.: 96/76
• Islip, Long Island: 84/75
• New Haven, Conn.: 86/70

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/07/25/weather-journal-a-rare-super-storm-this-way-comes/

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